The number one question companies are asking this Spring, both directly and indirectly, is: “What should we be doing with our supply chain in light of the administration’s tariff stance and its push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.?” It’s a question rooted in uncertainty, strategy, and a growing sense of urgency.
For those not following the daily (or hourly) headlines out of Washington, here’s the short version: the U.S. freight and manufacturing sectors are facing a turbulent 2025. A new wave of tariffs has upended long-standing trade patterns, disrupted freight volumes, and injected a new layer of complexity into corporate planning. The Trump administration’s trade policies have prompted many companies to pause, reassess sourcing strategies, and reexamine where and how they manufacture and move goods.
Meanwhile, shippers and logistics leaders are operating in a freight market defined by false starts, fleeting volume surges, and softening demand. In other words, uncertainty is the only constant.
This article explores the full picture: the intersection of trade policy and freight market dynamics. Our goal is to help supply chain leaders make sense of it all and develop a strategy for 2025 that balances caution with flexibility and sets the stage for long-term resilience.
As the second quarter of 2025 unfolds, the freight market remains in a state of limbo—drifting between short-term demand spikes and deeper structural changes. Carriers and shippers alike are taking a “wait-and-see” approach, cautiously scanning for signs of a true recovery while holding back on bold, long-term strategic moves.
In this kind of environment, correctly interpreting market signals is more important than ever. Misreading short-term fluctuations as sustainable trends can lead to costly missteps. For companies aiming to maintain operational resilience amid the noise, clear-eyed analysis and disciplined decision-making are essential.
The market has presented a mix of contradictory signals:
Behind these signals lie deeper economic drivers: sluggish consumer sentiment, inflation pressure, Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions, and broader global uncertainty. As policy volatility persists, many shippers are leaning into short-term adaptability rather than long-term commitments.
U.S. importers are canceling or deferring orders in response to sharp increases in tariffs—particularly the 145% duties now applied to Chinese goods. This has caused an unprecedented wave of blank sailings. More than 80 sailings were canceled in April, exceeding early COVID-19 levels.
Forwarders report that bookings from China are down nearly 37% since late March. The Port of Los Angeles projects container volumes will drop more than 43% YoY in early May. Meanwhile, bookings from Southeast Asia buoyed by temporary tariff suspensions on goods from Vietnam and Cambodia have seen modest growth.
Shipping lines are responding with blank sailings, port omissions, and vessel reassignments. For instance, Evergreen Marine and COSCO have removed weekly capacity from U.S.-bound services, while carriers are increasingly consolidating their China-origin networks. Some shippers are shifting goods into bonded warehouses to delay or avoid tariffs, gambling on a near-term policy rollback.
Manufacturing output is under pressure as component delays and raw material sourcing issues persist. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI has declined for three consecutive months. Retailers, meanwhile, are sitting on three to four months of inventory and deferring replenishment until they see clearer signals on demand and trade policy.
Some large importers are shifting from monthly replenishment to quarterly waves, spacing deliveries out to hedge against uncertainty and costs. These staggered strategies offer agility but demand precise logistics coordination.
In today’s noisy and fast-moving environment, misreading market signals can quickly lead to costly strategic errors. Here are some of the most common missteps businesses should be watching for:
As tariff pressures intensify and freight markets remain volatile, business leaders are rethinking how they approach both operational planning and long-term investment. The C-suite is moving away from aggressive growth tactics and instead embracing more measured, risk-aware strategies designed to preserve optionality and protect profitability.
While no one can fully predict how trade policy or market dynamics will evolve through the rest of 2025, companies are positioning themselves to stay agile, protect cash flow, and adapt quickly as conditions change.
Key priorities include:
This more cautious, adaptable playbook reflects a broader reality: agility is no longer just a best practice, it’s a baseline requirement for navigating today’s shifting economic and policy landscape.
Now more than ever, supply chain and transportation strategies must be grounded in optionality, flexibility, and resilience. The freight market of 2025 is no place for rigid playbooks. Instead, shippers need to build adaptive frameworks that can respond to policy swings, demand shifts, and operational disruptions without compromising performance.
Here’s how many are adjusting their strategies:
Subdued contract pricing has created a rare opportunity for shippers to renegotiate long-term agreements. Locking in competitive rates now can provide cost stability before tariffs and inflationary pressures work their way deeper into transportation costs.
As tariff uncertainty continues to ripple through global trade networks, companies are rethinking the architecture of their supply chains to build in more flexibility and risk mitigation. Here’s how they’re approaching it:
Private fleet expansion is becoming less economically viable due to regulatory uncertainty and rising vehicle costs. Some companies are shifting freight back to the for-hire market, seeking flexibility amid capacity fluctuations.
Intermodal continues to be a cost-effective hedge against truckload volatility, particularly on long-haul corridors. Shippers who maintain a healthy balance across modes can better manage capacity constraints and rate fluctuations.
The second half of the year is expected to bring headwinds from consumer spending slowdowns, tariff reinstatements, and ongoing destocking. Shippers are responding by building buffer into lead times, positioning inventory closer to demand centers, and maintaining flexible routing guides.
As Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions continue, West Coast ports are regaining volume. Shippers should stay alert to shifts in port performance, dwell times, and inland intermodal capacity to avoid downstream congestion.
Volume alone isn’t a growth strategy. Contribution margin analysis is essential in today’s environment - each load must serve broader financial goals.
Final mile services are particularly vulnerable to shifts in consumer confidence. Agile logistics models that can scale with demand will be essential for retailers and direct-to-consumer brands.
With tariff structures still in flux, supply chain leaders are tightening alignment with customs brokers, trade advisors, and compliance teams. Proactive engagement allows for quicker response to regulatory changes—and helps to avoid being caught flat-footed.
Shippers are increasingly relying on near real-time data - from earnings reports and inventory positions to carrier schedules and port analytics - to bridge the gap between lagging economic indicators and what’s actually happening on the ground.
The rest of 2025 will likely be shaped by inflation headwinds, tariff uncertainty, and a fragile consumer landscape. While some clarity may arrive by year’s end, most supply chain leaders are looking to 2026 as the true reset point.
Now is the time to play smart defense: renegotiate, diversify, and build the muscle memory needed to adapt quickly. Don’t mistake caution for inaction. By taking calculated steps today, businesses position themselves to thrive in whatever version of the post-tariff economy emerges next.
The next upswing will favor the strategically prepared—those with the foresight to adapt before the momentum returns.
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